Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions modeling for the cement production industry in Mexico

Abstract

The world is working on strategies to face climate change, of which mitigating emissions is crucial. In the long term, one of the most significant challenges is to meet the needs of society while incorporating sustainable processes that consider such mitigation. Currently, cement industry contributes to emissions generation within its core processes, accounting for over 8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mexico is an emerging economy with a great need for infrastructure development, which leads to an increasing cement demand. Population and economic growth tendencies are vital for predicting this industry’s demand. Different emissions mitigation strategies can be assessed with this macroeconomic perspective to determine their adaptation and implementation in the Mexican context. Aiming to collaborate in the global efforts to address climate change, this study proposed a research framework that provided a perspective on implementing mitigation strategies in the Mexican cement production industry by 2050. This framework provided an overview of the national cement industry, followed by a Business-As-Usual scenario construction with macroeconomic indicators, from which five alternative scenarios were derived. Energy and emissions modeling was carried out for each scenario using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The alternative scenarios were based on national, international, and private sector emissions reduction targets for the cement production process in Mexico. These scenarios were discussed through a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis, finding that carbon capture technologies are essential for significantly reducing GHG emissions. However, these technologies are not fully developed nor accessible for the industry to adopt with the required urgency. Additionally, clinker-to-cement ratio reduction represents an essential measure to reduce process-related emissions. Finally, reaching the emissions reduction targets of the scenarios requires concerted efforts between the private and public sectors. The novelty of this work resides in: (a) concentrating cement production industry performance in a single information and data platform; (b) adopting the modeled emissions reduction targets and their contextualization to Mexico; and (c) adjusting an appropriate methodology framework to evaluate a critical industrial sector. Moreover, this framework could be used for future research on emissions mitigation pathways in other national industrial sectors.