Ciencias Exactas y Ciencias de la Salud
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11285/551039
Pertenecen a esta colección Tesis y Trabajos de grado de las Maestrías correspondientes a las Escuelas de Ingeniería y Ciencias así como a Medicina y Ciencias de la Salud.
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- The Rising Sea-Level Caused by Climate Change in Quintana Roo, Mexico: A Model-Based Study of Vulnerability and Adaptation(Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, 2024-12-02) Mondragón Muñoz, Valeria Fernanda; Cervantes Avilés, Pabel Antonio; emimmayorquin; Batalini de Macedo, Marina; Campus Ciudad de México; Huerta Aguilar, Carlos AlbertoQuintana Roo is a state in Mexico with a population of 1.9 million inhabitants. This state has an extensive coastal region widely known for its tourist destinations such as Cancún, Tulúm, and Playa del Carmen, among others. However, the impacts of climate change pose increasing challenges for this region, such as the rise in sea level. The main objective of this work was to determine the risks posed by rising sea levels and how they intersect with local economic and environmental factors. This study determined climatic anomalies using a climatic model (CMIP6), created a sea-level rise simulation, and assessed potential adaptation strategies. The research revealed that the temperature anomaly in a stabilization scenario could increase to 2°C by 2100, aligning with the goal of the United Nations in the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, it can reach 4°C in a pessimistic scenario by 2100. Precipitation modeling results indicate that the rainfall may decrease by up to 10 mm/month in a stabilization scenario and up to 28 mm/month in a pessimistic scenario by 2100. The expected changes in these climatic conditions pose significant threats to the stability of the local ecosystems and communities in the area, such as the increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclones, heat waves, wildfires, coastal and fluvial flooding, and the elevation in sea level. About this last which is the aim of this work, the simulation of sea-level rise revealed that significant zones that hold both touristic and habitational infrastructure would be affected by this phenomenon. Considering that millions of people visit the destinations in Quintana Roo every year and that 85% of the state GDP depends on tertiary activities related to tourism, the activities related to this sector and its economy are unequivocally vulnerable to climate change hazards. To adapt the vulnerable areas against the potential adverse effects several actions in the coastal zones are considered. However, it is crucial to consider the knowledge gained through this study for making informed decisions and promoting effective strategies to protect the region and ensure sustainable development.